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The Crown's fiscal position has been improving over recent years with surpluses returning in 2014/15 and debt stabilising as a share of GDP.

The fiscal outlook is expected to continue to steadily improve, reflecting a growing economy which will drive growth in tax revenue at a higher rate than government spending.

In addition, uncertainty around the outlook for the US economy is heightened following the election, as is uncertainty around the UK economic outlook after the vote to leave the European Union.

We expect this performance to be maintained despite the impact of the recent Kaikōura earthquakes (see page 6).

We also expect the fiscal position to improve steadily. Global volatility and a risk of lower trading partner growth could reduce forecast growth in the next four years, and higher net migration, domestic demand and more binding capacity constraints in the New Zealand economy could mean that inflationary pressure rises faster than expected.

Growth in nominal GDP, which reflects growth in both real activity and prices and drives tax revenue, is expected to average 4.8% over the forecast period.

Compared to the , nominal GDP is cumulatively $23.7 billion higher over the four years ending June 2020, reflecting a higher starting point and stronger near-term outlook for prices and real activity.

The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2016 provides the Treasury's latest economic forecasts and the forecast financial statements of the Government, including the implications of Government financial decisions.

HYEFU 2016 was published conjointly with the Budget Policy Statement (BPS) 2017.

There is Additional Information available here that is not included in the printed Update.

The Government Finance Statistics (GFS) fiscal tables for central government are not currently available.

At the same time, net migration inflows are assumed to subside from current levels as foreign labour markets improve, which means that growth will be less rapid in future.

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