Xkcd statistics dating

) there are 5.1 billion acts of sexual intercourse in the United States each year among American men 15 – 39.

And it adds that the average women has a 1/4 chance of being raped during her lifetime – so the odds of a woman being raped during her lifetime must be 220000x higher than the odds of a man being falsely accused of rape.

Did you spot the sleight of hand in those calculations?

Therefore, the average man has a 27500x higher chance of being raped than being falsely accused of rape.

The average man has a 1 in 84,079 chance of being killed by lightning, so that’s 32x more likely than getting falsely accused of rape.

Although keeping your story halfway straight is probably harder than it sounds sitting in an armchair without any cops grilling me, it seems very easy to imagine that most false accusers manage this task, especially since they may worry that admitting their duplicity will lead to some punishment.

The research community defines false accusations as those that can be proven false beyond a reasonable doubt, and all others as true.Thirty-two times more likely to be struck by lightning! Needless to say, all of these figures are completely wrong, in fact wrong by a factor of over 22,700x.I’m not really complaining – missing the mark by only a little over four orders of magnitude is actually not bad for a “story” of this type.We will examine these numbers later, but for now let’s just take them as given.It then goes on to calculate that, given the average man has sex 99 times per year (who is this average man?!All of these would go down as “false allegations” under the “victim has to admit she was lying or contradict herself” criteria. But the opposite critique seems much stronger: that some false accusers manage tell their story without contradicting themselves, and without changing their mind and admit they were lying.

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